Original Data · Natural vs Lab-Grown · Charted From The Record
Do lab-grown diamonds hold their value? The honest answer, in one chart.
No, not the way a natural diamond does. A generic one-carat lab-grown diamond has fallen about 74 percent since 2016, and roughly 90 percent since 2018, while the natural equivalent eased only 21 percent. The two lines below start close and then split wide open.
We are a natural-diamond cutting house, so we have a side in this, and we would still rather show you the record than argue it. Every figure on the chart is from the diamond trade’s most-cited analyst, and the sources are listed at the foot of the page.
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The same one-carat diamond, natural and lab-grown, 2016 to 2023
Both lines track the generic price of a one-carat diamond in US dollars per carat, the measure the trade watches. The natural line drifts down gently. The lab-grown line falls off a cliff. The shaded wedge between them is the value a lab-grown buyer gives up, and it widens every year.
The numbers, and the gap that opened
The same data as figures. The last column is the telling one: it shows how much of a natural diamond’s price a lab-grown stone commanded. In 2016 they were close. By 2023 a lab-grown diamond was worth barely a quarter of the natural, and the figure has kept falling since.
| Year | Lab-grown 1ct (USD) | Natural 1ct (USD) | Lab-grown as % of natural |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $5,450 | $6,538 | 83% |
| 2023 | $1,425 | $5,185 | 27% |
Generic 1-carat figures, US dollars per carat, from Paul Zimnisky data via Quartz. A market benchmark, not a Prodiam quote; a specific stone is priced on its exact 4Cs. In rand the lab-grown fall is starker still once the weaker rand over the period is added, which our rand-versus-dollar trends page sets out.
How it happened, on the record
This was not a quiet drift. It was a manufactured product meeting unlimited supply, with the biggest name in diamonds calling the top and then walking away.
- 2016 The two were close. A generic one-carat lab-grown diamond cost about $5,450 against $6,538 for the natural equivalent. Lab-grown was only around 17 percent cheaper.
- 2018 De Beers prices lab-grown as fashion. De Beers launches Lightbox at a flat $800 per carat, with no premium for colour, cut or clarity, publicly positioning lab-grown as a fashion product rather than a store of value.
- 2023 The gap blows open. Generic one-carat lab-grown is down to about $1,425 while natural sits near $5,185. Lab-grown has fallen 74 percent from 2016; natural eased 21 percent.
- 2025 De Beers shuts Lightbox. De Beers exits lab-grown entirely, noting prices in the sector have fallen about 90 percent since 2018. A generic one-carat lab-grown retails near $760; the wholesale stone behind it is under $200.
What it means when you try to sell
A falling new-stone price has a brutal knock-on for resale. Because a fresh lab-grown diamond is cheaper every year, the one in your ring is always competing with a better-value new stone, so the offer to buy it back is low or simply absent. Reported lab-grown resale runs at roughly 20 to 40 percent of the purchase price at best, and a number of jewellers who take natural diamonds for trade-in or upgrade will not accept lab-grown at all. A natural diamond is no quick investment, and we never pretend otherwise, but it keeps a real, tradeable resale value that a lab-grown stone does not.
So which should you actually buy?
The honest answer depends entirely on what you are buying it for, and we will give it straight even though we sell natural.
- Buy lab-grown to wear it. It is real diamond and the most size and sparkle per rand you can get. If the look is the point and resale is irrelevant to you, a lab-grown stone is a sound, clear-eyed choice.
- Buy natural to keep it. If the stone needs to hold value, trade in, or pass down, natural is the only one of the two with a market behind it. Finite supply is the whole reason it held while lab-grown fell.
- Do not buy lab-grown as an asset. That is the one real mistake. The record above is what depreciation looks like, and it is not finished.
We cut and sell natural GIA-certified stones cutter-direct, so we can show you a real, firm rand price on a specific natural diamond rather than a market average. The live search shows fully-landed ZAR prices on stones in stock, and our natural versus lab-grown comparison sets the two side by side on every other measure too.
Sources and method
The chart plots Paul Zimnisky generic one-carat diamond price data, the diamond industry’s most-cited independent figures, as reported by Quartz in August 2023: lab-grown $5,450 and natural $6,538 per carat in 2016, moving to $1,425 and $5,185 by 2023. The like-for-like one-carat VS1 G-colour retail comparison ($3,625 to $1,615 for lab-grown, natural holding near $6,600) is Zimnisky’s own published analysis. The 2018 Lightbox launch at $800 per carat, the roughly 90 percent fall since 2018 and the 2025 closure of Lightbox are from De Beers Group and Rapaport releases. Resale ranges are widely reported across the trade. Dollar figures are market benchmarks, not a Prodiam quote; a specific stone is priced on its exact cut, colour, clarity and carat, firm and in writing.
- Quartz, citing Paul Zimnisky: lab-grown vs natural generic 1-carat price, 2016 and 2023
- Paul Zimnisky: like-for-like 1-carat VS1 G retail, lab-grown vs natural
- De Beers Group: closing Lightbox; lab-grown prices down ~90% since 2018
Lab-grown diamond value: common questions
Do lab-grown diamonds hold their value?
No, not the way a natural diamond does, and the record is now clear enough to show rather than argue. A lab-grown diamond is a manufactured product with effectively unlimited supply, and its price has fallen as production has scaled. Paul Zimnisky's generic one-carat figure has lab-grown dropping from about $5,450 in 2016 to $1,425 by 2023, a 74 percent fall, while the natural equivalent eased only 21 percent.
On a strict like-for-like one-carat VS1 G-colour basis the same analyst recorded lab-grown retail more than halving between 2018 and 2022 while the natural held near $6,600. De Beers, which ran its own Lightbox lab-grown brand from 2018, closed it in 2025 and said sector prices had fallen about 90 percent since launch.
So a lab-grown stone is worth buying for how it looks, not for what it will be worth later, because the next batch is always grown cheaper.
How much does a lab-grown diamond depreciate?
Steeply, and faster than almost any other jewellery purchase. The generic one-carat lab-grown price is down about 74 percent since 2016 and roughly 90 percent since 2018 on De Beers' own reckoning, and it is still sliding. A one-carat lab-grown that retailed near $3,625 in 2018 sells for under $800 today.
Because a fresh lab-grown stone is cheaper every year, anything you already own is immediately competing with a better-value new one, which is exactly why resale offers come in so low. Natural is no quick win either, but it has held far more of its price over the same years.
Can you sell a lab-grown diamond later?
You can try, but expect very little, and some jewellers will not take it at all. There is no real secondary market for lab-grown stones, because a buyer can get a brand-new one for less than last year’s price. Reported resale sits around 20 to 40 percent of what you paid at best, and many trade-in and upgrade programmes that happily accept natural diamonds exclude lab-grown outright.
A natural diamond is no get-rich asset, but it has a genuine resale, trade-in and auction market that a lab-grown stone simply does not.
Why have lab-grown diamond prices collapsed?
Supply, plainly. A lab-grown diamond can be made to order in a few weeks in a reactor, and as Chinese and Indian CVD and HPHT capacity scaled, supply became effectively unlimited and the price fell toward the cost of making it. De Beers accelerated the slide in 2018 by launching Lightbox at a flat $800 per carat, pricing lab-grown openly as a fashion product.
Natural diamonds cannot be made on demand: their supply is finite and shrinking as old mines close, which is the structural reason the two prices have pulled so far apart and will stay apart.
Does that make lab-grown a bad buy?
Not at all, as long as you buy it for the right reason. A lab-grown diamond is real diamond, optically and chemically, and it gives you the most size and sparkle per rand of anything on the market, which is a perfectly good reason to choose one if the look is what you are paying for.
What it will not do is hold its value, so it is a poor choice if resale, trade-in or passing it on matters. We deal in natural stones and will still say it plainly: buy lab-grown to wear it, buy natural to keep it. The only real mistake is buying lab-grown believing it is an asset.
Do natural diamonds hold their value better?
Considerably better, though we are careful not to oversell it. Over the same 2016 to 2023 window in which lab-grown fell 74 percent, the natural one-carat benchmark eased about 21 percent, and on a strict like-for-like grade the natural retail price was essentially flat from 2018 to 2022.
Natural diamonds are a finite, mined resource with an established resale and auction market, so they keep value far better than a manufactured product with unlimited supply. That is not the same as an investment that reliably grows, and we would never pitch it as one.
It means a natural diamond is something you can own, wear and pass on with most of its worth intact, which a lab-grown stone is not.
Compiled and last reviewed by Darren Etkind, director, Prodiam Trading, on 26 June 2026, from the public sources listed above. Prodiam deals in natural GIA-certified diamonds; figures are market benchmarks, not a quote for a specific stone.